This report, prepared for the National Council on Environmental Technology and Policy and the Administrator of the EPA, reviews emerging trends and developments important for environmental protection. It sets out a foresight framework which divides human activities into six broad themes for analysis. The report analyzes each of these themes and provides an overview of emerging developments. It also describes the Desired State of the future and the Opportunities for EPA to move forward. The opportunities are formal recommendations for the EPA Administrator and the Agency’s senior leadership. The report also identifies several overarching proposals to improve EPA’s ability to anticipate and address emerging environmental challenges. Click here to view the full report.
SELECTED PROJECTS
SELECTED SPEECHES AND WORKSHOPS
Psychology and Technology for Police Futures
IAF President Jonathan Peck conducted a one-day workshop for the Commission on Peace Officer Standards and Training (POST) at Command College for the Center for Leadership Development on March 11, 2010 in Folsom, California. Mr. Peck addressed the role of MBTI personality type in policing and in leadership and provided an introduction to thinking about the future using scenarios.
IAF President Jonathan Peck conducted a one-day workshop for the Commission on Peace Officer Standards and Training (POST) at Command College for the Center for Leadership Development on March 11, 2010 in Folsom, California. Mr. Peck addressed the role of MBTI personality type in policing and in leadership and provided an introduction to thinking about the future using scenarios.
Cyberdemocracy, Equity and Sustainable Development
At the International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium (IRAHSS) 2010 in Singapore on March 16, 2010, IAF founder Clem Bezold presented on recent and future advances in information and communications infrastructure and applications. These trends are moving forward, albeit more slowly during the economic downturn, and provide a backdrop for enhanced political participation – both organized and informal. The internet, mobile communication, social media, networks and networking, personal coaches/avatar use, polling, games and simulations, news, editorial opinion/blogs, and personal information gathering are evolving rapidly. These advances and their use will affect how people participate and influence policy making and elections. Simultaneously and globally there are growing calls for sustainability and equity. This is taking many forms, such as the creation of the Millennium Development Goals, corporate social responsibility, the ISO 26000 Social Responsibility Guideline, and the UN Global Compact, as well as the emerging health equity and pro-poor foresight movements. Society is changing its mind, as it did with slavery, women’s rights, and the environment. Each of these areas remains at least partially unfinished, but there has been great movement on each of them. Sustainability and equity, including health equity and poverty, will be among the next causes that define “the next civil rights movement.” There will be reversals and backslides in this movement, as in the case of climate change, which will place disproportionate burdens on the poor. But the movement toward sustainability and equity will grow. Cyberdemocracy-enhanced political participation will ultimately support this “next civil rights movement.”
At the International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium (IRAHSS) 2010 in Singapore on March 16, 2010, IAF founder Clem Bezold presented on recent and future advances in information and communications infrastructure and applications. These trends are moving forward, albeit more slowly during the economic downturn, and provide a backdrop for enhanced political participation – both organized and informal. The internet, mobile communication, social media, networks and networking, personal coaches/avatar use, polling, games and simulations, news, editorial opinion/blogs, and personal information gathering are evolving rapidly. These advances and their use will affect how people participate and influence policy making and elections. Simultaneously and globally there are growing calls for sustainability and equity. This is taking many forms, such as the creation of the Millennium Development Goals, corporate social responsibility, the ISO 26000 Social Responsibility Guideline, and the UN Global Compact, as well as the emerging health equity and pro-poor foresight movements. Society is changing its mind, as it did with slavery, women’s rights, and the environment. Each of these areas remains at least partially unfinished, but there has been great movement on each of them. Sustainability and equity, including health equity and poverty, will be among the next causes that define “the next civil rights movement.” There will be reversals and backslides in this movement, as in the case of climate change, which will place disproportionate burdens on the poor. But the movement toward sustainability and equity will grow. Cyberdemocracy-enhanced political participation will ultimately support this “next civil rights movement.”
FUTURES OF GOVERNMENT
IAF has been a leader in government foresight since its early work in anticipatory democracy. IAF championed government foresight for Congress and other public policy decision makers by establishing the Foresight Seminars on Health and Innovation in 1978. IAF continues today to work across the federal government providing foresight on trends and issues, assisting with direction setting through planning activities, and helping agencies build their capacity to think strategically about the future. IAF is approved for the General Services Administration federal supply schedule for management consulting, facilitation and training. IAF also works with state and local governments and communities to identify the conditions and values to create their preferred future. IAF continues as an advocate for anticipatory democracy translated to today’s communication technologies and social priorities.
PROJECTS
Total Fitness for the 21st Century
IAF and the Samueli Institue for Informational Biology facilitated a conference of military and civilian experts to define "total fitness" for the U.S. military. Click here for the PDF report.
AMEDD Futures 2039
In 2009, IAF facilitated a group of more than 50 military and civilian personnel from the U.S. Army Medical Department (AMEDD) to develop forecasts for military medicine in the year 2039. Click here for an overview of the project and access to the report.
Scenarios for the World Health Organization
IAF prepared scenarios for use in the development of the World Health Organization’s 11th General Program of Work, their 10-year strategic plan covering from 2006 through 2015.
PUBLICATIONS
The Environmental Future: Emerging Challenges and Opportunities for EPA
Anticipatory Democracy: People in Politics of the Future
Anticipatory democracy is an approach to problem solving that combines future consciousness with broad-based public participation. In Anticipatory Democracy: People in Politics of the Future, IAF President Clement Bezold assembled the ideas and thinking of leading futurists, professional planners, and future-oriented citizens. They address issues ranging from housing and health care to ecology and technology in settings as diverse as Congress, private corporations, voluntary organizations and urban black communities. Published in 1978 by Random House, now out of print.
Anticipatory Democracy Revisited
In 2006, IAF founder Clem Bezold revisited the concept of "anticipatory democracy" he first studied in the 1970's. Click here for the PDF document.