Alternative Futures October 2004

Intriguing Ideas

Biomedical Research Forecasts for 2029 Chart Possible Future Paths

To stimulate thinking about the future of biomedical research, the Institute for Alternative Futures developed 14 forecasts to chart future paths for science over the next 25 years.

IAF developed the forecasts from a framework describing areas where emerging knowledge appears most important for biomedical research. This framework supported an IAF scan seeking evidence that significant change may be at hand in different fields. IAF futurists used the scan to conduct an internal brainstorm seeking insights and patterns of change that might support surprising developments by 2029.

These forecasts are intended to push our thinking beyond the expectable. To review and comment on the full forecasts and the research framework, visit the 2029 Project website at http://www.altfutures.com/2029.asp

The 14 forecasts for biomedical research in 2029 are briefly introduced here:

Imaging and Biomarkers. Molecular and energy-based imaging lets scientists visualize function so that pathology and normal biology are visible. A huge public library of biomarkers have been selected and validated for clinical use.

Open Source Research. Open source research is often faster and better. A significant percentage of university and independent research, and some corporate research are immediately available without copyright or patent restrictions on its use or application.

Human Machine Interconnections. Computers are such a seamless part of research that it is not always clear where the line between artificial and human intelligence should be drawn in science.

Brown Chemical Crisis. Ultra-sensitive testing tools such as Microelectro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) and DNA arrays create an awareness that industrial chemicals and pollutants are present in everyone’s bodies at levels which have significant impacts on gene expression.

Role of Animals. Animals continue to play a key role in research, though few animals are sacrificed for the knowledge they yield. Chemical compounds and biologics are tested in bio-engineered tissues harvested from animals and through in silico simulations before in vivo tests.

Miniaturized Research Infrastructure. Bio-chips and nano-labs proliferate allowing research to operate at various scales from molecular to global. Scientists are constantly looking for perturbations that could signal phase changes potentially affecting evolution.

Merger of Disciplines. Over 50% of scientists with Ph.D.s combine social science and a spiritual discipline with what were formerly called “hard sciences” in their education and professional work. Cross cultural team learning is universally recognized.

Evolution of Systems Biology. A new theory of evolution helps scientists propose laws that govern molecular, cellular and physiological processes. Predictive models are highly reliable for most molecular processes, many key cellular pathways and a number of key organ systems.

Biochemical Design and Faster, Lower Costs Medications. Scientists have exquisite design tools and knowledge to customize molecular compounds. Effective biomonitoring lowers the time and cost of getting new compounds on the market and into practice.

Ethical Dimensions of Science. All scientific projects engage participants in public debates about ethical concerns, which have been widened to encompass multiple worldviews and cultural perspectives.

Aging and Longevity. A single theory of aging organizes efforts to make greater longevity available. Regenerative medicine provides many alternatives for those who want to delay death.

Healthy Societies. Health can be created at the level of countries, and large-scale experiments are underway to show pathways to health. A variety of social stressors and policy failures are recognized as symptoms of sickening societies.

Race to Africa. Years of speeding new health products and services to the poorest continent on the globe have yielded significant health results. Equity is now the fourth bottom line for the great majority of multi-national businesses.

Earth Systems Engineering and Management (ESEM). Ecology and climate science have advanced through the contributions of global monitoring instrumentation, large networks of citizen-scientist observers, and advanced models and simulations.

Shared Learning

IAF Explores Innovative Methodologies with Richard Slaughter

Richard Slaughter, PhD., a renowned Australian futurist, spent a day with IAF futurists Oct. 1 exploring innovative futures methodologies. Slaughter has been the president of the World Futures Studies Federation since 2001 and is the founding director of the Australian Foresight Institute (AFI) at Swinburne University.

“We are a part of a technologically sophisticated system and yet at the social level, we have an inadequate level of foresight capability,” Slaughter said. He recommends integrating the interior view of the individual and collective social realm with exterior views typically found in most futures scans. IAF and Slaughter specifically reviewed three methodologies: all quadrants/all levels (AQAL), causal layered analysis (CLA), and the transformative-cycle for their applicability with different clients.

AQAL is based on Ken Wilber’s four quadrants approach to understanding reality. The four quadrants make “a simple division between 'inner' and 'outer' on one axis; and between 'individual' and 'social' on the other.” AQAL directs futurists to examine all quadrants at all levels to understand present circumstances and future possibilities. CLA is used to critically probe the causes at deeper layers of interpretation. While the more common empiricist orientation merely `skims the surface', CLA probes into worldviews, myths and metaphors to get to deeper meaning. Slaughter also described his transformative-cycle methodology which is used to analyze how new ideas are legitimated by society.

An explanation of these methodologies as well as many other innovative techniques for futurists can be found in Slaughter’s latest book, Futures Beyond Dystopia: Creating Social Foresight. While each of these methodologies can aid futurists, Slaughter cautioned that they be evaluated for what they do not reveal as much as for what they do.

Leadership Networking
IAF's vision as an institute includes a commitment to working in community with leaders as catalysts for transformation. From time to time, we will report on where our leadership networking is taking us.

Peck Aids Family Caregivers

IAF Futurist Jonathan Peck recently helped the National Family Caregivers Association work on their vision, mission and a bold set of goals. “Here is an organization that can empower millions of Americans to make a real difference in the quality of care given to their children, husbands, wives or parents,” Peck said in praising the quality of the work done by the NFCA staff, board and friends. “IAF is proud to assist such a committed, bold and caring organization capable of making a great difference in healthcare.”