In This Issue
A Formula for Leading Change
The Digital Geography of the 21st Century
Imaging Science Prepares its Legacy for
Healthcare
The DRA Project Holds Disparity Foresight Briefing on
Addressing
Social Determinants of Health
Forward
Perspectives
A Formula for Leading
Change
By IAF Senior Futurist Marsha Rhea
A simple formula for leading change
can help you gain insight and generate momentum to overcome resistance to
change. The formula reads simply: Change = Dissatisfaction
x Vision x First Steps > Resistance.
The wisdom is in understanding that resistance and change both have external
and internal dimensions and vision is really the most powerful factor in the
formula.
The Institute for Alternative Futures
uses this formula in speeches and workshops to demystify the challenge of
leading change. For a recent example, click here to
hear an audio recording of an October 2007
presentation to the Association of School Business Officials annual conference.
Slides from the presentation are available here.
Dissatisfaction
Some skeptics believe people do not
change until their dissatisfaction becomes so great that they will do something
to escape the pain. Wise leaders intervene before the crisis. You can use the
dissatisfaction to open people up to a powerful conversation about their
aspirations for the future.
Vision
Vision is the most powerful factor in
the change formula because a shared vision will help you break through
resistance, keep you on course in changing conditions, and help you overcome
the dissatisfaction people are experiencing.
A vision is only a dream unless it is
backed up with a strong sense of how you will accomplish it. A strategic
framework can set out the audacious goals, strategies and next steps needed to execute
the vision. More organizations are turning to IAF to create strategic
frameworks and compelling visions for their organization that will inspire the
changes they recognize are needed.
First
Steps
You can get the traction you need for
this new direction with a confident set of first steps. Identify early wins
that will give your organization a sense of what is possible and inspire them
for even more difficult steps. As Jim Collins advises in Good to Great, make
sure you have the right people on the bus. Do they support the vision and have
the right competencies to execute it? Be prepared to invest in the innovation
and learning to accomplish audacious goals. Communicate your vision and goals
regularly and make it a priority to celebrate the efforts people put into
making the vision a reality.
Resistance
To understand why you are stuck in a
situation you don't like, look at both the external and internal forms of
resistance. Your history or the organization's politics may have a hold on you
or your resources may be limited. Or your stakeholders may prevent you from
taking any high stakes risks. These external factors may not be as inhibiting
as the internal factors like fearing that you lack the knowledge or expertise
you will need. You may be operating in a low trust environment where fear of
failure is very real. However, the greatest form of resistance may simply be
the comfort you experience continuing in the status quo.
Change
However much we may resist change, it
is always happening. By taking stock of the trends, issues and new developments
in the external environment, you can identify the opportunities and threats
that shape the future for your organization.
Wise leaders also pay attention to the
internal dimensions of change. Are you accepting assumptions that should be
challenged? You need to be wise about what must change and what should not. You
can lose your way without this deep internal orientation. But your core values,
even your identity, can evolve over time as you adapt to increasing complexity in
your world.
Leading change is never easy, but this
simple formula can become a powerful tool for understanding where you are in
the process and what you need to do next to shape a preferred future. It is not
the resistance or the changing conditions that determine your outcome. What
makes a difference is your ability to turn dissatisfaction into opportunity and
help people find a shared vision worthy of the hard work ahead.
The Digital
Geography of the 21st Century
By IAF Futurist Devin Fidler
It is only in the last half century
that human societies developed a sense of what it means to live on a planet.
The realization subtly shaped human history ever since. Now, we are on the
brink of a shift in how we view the world.
The twentieth century saw a monumental
change in perceptions as mass industrialization peaked and ultimately gave rise
to an information age. Throughout this process, our worldview has been refined
to incorporate those changes in the world we see around us.
Yet, our view of our physical surroundings is
still evolving. Jess Elder, head of georeferencing projects at
the Washington DC-based National Geographic
Society, argues that advances in
georeferencing, real-time media and new approaches to information processing
will once-again transform our sense of place.
Elder cites applications like Google
Earth as early examples of this trend, pointing out that these programs invite
individuals to look at their lives in a much larger global context. With a few
keystrokes it is possible to zoom from a planetary overview to a view of your
own front lawn. According to Elder, this is only the beginning.
"Within the next decade or so, we will
begin to see geographic frameworks becoming central to the organization of
information across the internet," Elder predicts. For example, digital
advertisements that can be tightly focused to a particular geographic area have
already been developed. Beyond this, geographic search engine applications are
being perfected that allow people to more effectively "search" their physical
surroundings, not only for local businesses or addresses, but also for
historical events, new stories and ultimately perhaps even individuals.
According to Elder, all of these
trends point toward a richer and more layered sense of place in the future and
National Geographic Maps is keen to stay ahead of the curve. Recently, for
example, the organization developed Meta Lens, an application that allows
organizations to precisely georeference their media collections, information
archives and data feeds.
The further development of
applications of this type could be all the more important as societies are
increasingly called upon to address problems in a coordinated way and on a
planetary scale. For example, these technologies will ultimately allow for the simultaneous
real-time analysis of environmental and development-related pressure points
worldwide. As human activity increasingly has impacts on a planetary scale,
digital geography promises to be a key tool in the effort to design interfaces
that make activity on this scale sustainable.
Trends and
Insights
Imaging Science
Prepares its Legacy
for Healthcare
In 2005, the Institute for Alternative
Futures worked with the Academy of Radiology Research (ARR) to develop a
Blueprint for Imaging in Biomedical Research. The Blueprint foreshadows
remarkable improvements in our ability to understand the human body, intervene
and improve health.
Dr. Elias Zerhouni, a leader in
imaging science and Director of National Institutes of Health, had challenged
the ARR to convene scientists from across scientific disciplines to develop the
blueprint. Their exchange showed where the leading edge of imaging science is
heading, and the contributions coming from imaging are described in a recently
published Blueprint for Imaging in Biomedical
Research (BIBR). The
blueprint supports Dr. Zerhouni's aspirational statement before Congress: "As
the 21st century begins to unfold, we are poised to make quantum leaps in our
knowledge about how to improve people's health."
The BIBR describes how imaging is
leading a change in the culture of science and contributing to health. Today's
competitive scientists working within the silos of their disciplines are moving
to more collaborative teams that integrate multiple disciplines. Imaging
science is leading the way in "build[ing] networks for research collaboration
among imaging investigators from different disciplines and institutions."
These collaborative networks of
researchers will be aided in their endeavors by the ability to view changes at
the smallest levels in the body. New imaging technologies are giving researchers
the tools they need to understand how cells organize into tissues, organ
systems and whole organisms. Atomic force microscopy and related technologies
"are yielding methods for imaging biological structures with resolution at the
atomic level, providing important manipulative capabilities for nanoscience."
These new tools are vital for
identifying biomarkers. Biomarkers have the potential to dramatically improve
the prevention and treatment of disease by acting as surrogate endpoints. Once
these pre-disease states are recognized more focus can be placed on the
prevention of disease. These biomarkers will support research into treatments
for all the major diseases from hypertension to cancer and Alzheimer's. Beyond
the many new therapies that biomarkers can help deliver, there is an even
larger promise of systems change in healthcare. The identification and
targeting of biomarkers for key diseases is a key development for biomedical
research that IAF first forecast in 2001 in Co-evolution: Innovation and
Regulation of Medical Products.
Imaging is also leading to new
understanding of the brain/mind dynamic through functional mapping of the brain.
This knowledge will spread well beyond healthcare to how we operate in our
personal and professional lives. For example, brain research is changing how
management gurus view leadership. Recent breakthroughs in brain research are
showing that traditional methods of creating
change and inspire learning
in organizations are
not as effective as reshaping their expectations about the future.
Taken together, the new imaging
technologies described in the BIBR will help usher in two widely recognized
improvements coming to healthcare systems. The first is the ability to predict
and prevent disease. The knowledge of pre-disease states will bring early
treatments that effectively mean many patients may never experience the
symptoms that today define most diseases. The second big change is the
identification of subpopulations of patients who respond to a therapy and those
who are non-responders, or who face greater risk of side effects.
This widely anticipated ability to personalize the
selection of medicine was described by IAF in The 2029 Project:
Creating an Ethical
Future for Biomedical R&D.
News and
Events
The DRA Project Holds Disparity
Foresight Briefing on Addressing Social Determinants of Health
The leading Democratic presidential
candidates have, rightly, focused on healthcare in the recent primaries.
However, between the debates on which health plan will do the most to increase
access to care, there is something missing in the debate. Access to health care
will only do so much if we do not also address the social environment and the
systemic problems that make entire communities sicker than they need to be.
The DRA Project in conjunction with
the Congressional Hispanic Congress and with support from the American Cancer
Institute held its first DRA Foresight Briefing on December 6th, 2007 in Washington,
D.C. Despite the rare flurry of snow in the capital it was standing room only
as 115 policy-makers, congressional staffers and non-profit leaders gathered to
go beyond access to care and learn more about Reducing Disparities Faster:
Addressing the Social Determinants of Health.
IAF Founder and Chairman of the
Board, Clem Bezold, opened the session by placing the movement to eliminate
health disparities and the DRA Project in the larger context of society's
inexorable movement toward justice and equity. Just like the civil rights
movement, the antislavery movement and the women's rights movements, the
pursuit of equity (fairness) is part of a larger trend that will take time, but
with support it can be accelerated.
Larry Cohen, executive director of
the Prevention Institute, spoke on the importance of community
health in
reducing health disparities. As IOM noted, "It is unreasonable to expect that
people will change their behavior easily when so many forces in the social,
cultural, and physical environment conspire against such change." Cohen
proposed four policies and practices needed for a solution to health
disparities:
- Increase
government funding that emphasizes prevention as well as medical care and
research
- Design
and implement a national strategy from a social determinants perspective
- Train
health leaders in a catalytic role
- Support
initiatives at the community level that focus on community health determinants
(e.g. REACH and Steps to a Healthier US)
Stephen Thomas, director of the Center
for Minority Health, believes in the importance of reaching minorities in the
communities they live in. Thomas connected our struggles today to eliminate
health disparities with the origins of the minority health movement with Booker
T. Washington and the Tuskegee Institute. Thomas also shared the positive
findings of the new and innovative approaches the Center for Minority Health
has taken to reach African American communities.
Dr. Amparo Castillo, project
director of the Midwest Latino Health Research, Training &
Policy
Center,
identified empowerment and mobilization of the community as key factors to
success based on his experiences on the Diabetes Empowerment Education Program
(DEEP). Castillo recommends that those who want to tackle disparities focus on
an ecological model that targets individual, family, community and systems
change and that they form partnerships early with both public and private
sectors.
Rosemarie Henson, deputy director of
the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion,
talked
about the Racial and Ethnic Approaches to Community Health (REACH U.S.)
initiative. Unlike other public health approaches, REACH empowers community
members to seek better health in culturally innovative and effective ways. The initiative
has been successful in bridging gaps between the health care system and
community and creating changes social and physical environments to overcome
barriers to good health. The REACH US program shows that focusing on community
health can eliminate health disparities.
The Henry J. Kaiser Family
Foundation has graciously hosted a webcast video, slides and a transcript of
the DRA Foresight Briefing here on their website. Slides and copies of the
handouts at the event can be downloaded here at the DRA Project
webpage.
The DRA Project will be having
another DRA Briefing in March of 2008. Look to the IAF Newsletter for more
information as a date and speakers are selected for the event.
Upcoming Events
The Looming Diabetes Crisis in
Georgia: What We Need to do to Change Our 2025 Forecast, The Sixth Annual
Statewide Diabetes and Cardiovascular Conference, IAF Senior Futurist Bill
Rowley, MD, January 30th, Augusta, GA.
Vision 2021 for Schools and the Principalship,
Colorado Association for School
Executives 8th
Annual Winter Leadership
Conference, IAF Senior Futurist Marsha Rhea, January 31st, Denver, CO.
Obesity and Diabetes in 2025,
University of Mississippi Medical Center Metabolic Disease Policy Conference,
IAF Senior Futurist Bill Rowley, MD, February 11th, Jackson, MS.
Institute
for Alternative Futures
